Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/18 – Zone Coverage

Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/18 – Zone Coverage

Locks

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon State vs. Utah State +7 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

It’s been a massive turnaround this season for a Utah State program that posted only one win last year. The Aggies have an opportunity to get their 11th win of the year tonight and should be extremely competitive in this one.

I’m looking closely at how these teams play when they travel, and it’s a big disparity. Utah State was undefeated away from home this season by an average 17 point margin. Conversely, Oregon State was an ugly 1-5 on the road this year and allow almost twice as many points per game. The Beavers have an excellent running game, but they’ve struggled to get that going on the road as well. An Aggies defense that struggled against the run all year fixed those issues in the Mountain West title game, destroying a very similar San Diego State team.

Utah State has one of the more explosive passing attacks in the country and should take advantage of a Beavers defense that is 102nd in explosive play rate allowed. The Aggies have all the motivation here, and in what could be a back-and-forth game, I’ll take a touchdown with the underdog.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Utah State Moneyline (+250)

I really see the Aggies as a live dog here. Underdogs typically perform extremely well early in bowl season and got off to a 2-0 ATS and 1-1 straight-up start yesterday. With Utah State seeking that 11th win and being so good away from home, I’ll sprinkle a small bet on them to take this outright.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Auburn/St. Louis Over 146.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network

Auburn has been an offensive juggernaut recently and should get into another high-scoring game against a St. Louis team that’s been an excellent over bet.

The Tigers have scored 85.8 points per game in their last 5 contests, and today get head coach Bruce Pearl back from suspension. Count me as a believer that Pearl will want to take out some frustrations off that absence, and I see them playing at their usual fast pace where they love to launch threes. That should lead to plenty of points with a St. Louis team on the other side well-equipped to hang in a shootout, leaning on their 19th-rated offense that’s 34th in true shooting percentage.

These teams in their last 12 combined games are 9-3 to the over, and that trend should continue here. With two teams that are both top-20 in per-game scoring, this fairly moderate total is just not high enough.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Baylor -7 @ Oregon (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN2

There are a few teams at this point in the college basketball season that I refuse to bet against, and Baylor tops the list. I see their dominant run continuing here against an Oregon team that looks broken against quality competition.

The Bears have the 2nd-best margin of victory in the country, destroying their opponents by 26.9 PPG while covering the number by 6.9 points on average. All of their 9 wins this …….

Source: https://zonecoverage.com/2021/gambling/tiny-nicks-gambling-picks-12-18-2/

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